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To: epony
epony, normally, I would agree with you. The thing is (and I'm working at a 2nd tier US brokerage firm in Israel) that this is not a "cycle". What we are experiencing is a reshape of Wall St. and the re-organization of financial firms. You can basically take out Bear Sterns, Lehman Br. and Merrill Lynch out of the reccruiters list of MBA programs. Also rumored today to go bankrupt or be bought are the biggest two, MS and GS.
And we still haven't heard anything about foreign/UK brokers.
With just Lehman out of the picture, 26000 people are now looking for jobs in other firms, so there's MORE competition (-9000 employees going to Barclays after buying Lehman's IB business).
Citi, Wachovia, Wells Fargo, JPM and BofA will NOT be hiring lots of students in the next couple of years even as the stock/bond market turns again and becomes bullish.
It's a bit scary to believe so, but Investment Bankers will probably not be receiving those high salaries in the next couple of years.
This is not just a "cycle". There are things today that have not been seen since the late 20s…