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To: shemesh
that would depend on the inflow of applications. You have to understand that applications are read in the order in which they are received. meaning, the first application to be read for regular decision will be the first one submitted after the early decision deadline expired (1 minute after it for the sake of argument). The meaning for you is that when you submit in November, there will be X applications that have already been submitted and are pending review. your chances are proportional to the class size that is yet to be filled at that point, based on the acceptance rate from those X applications, as well as from the Early decision round. There will also be applications from ED that were "rolled" to Regular decision and might be considered before yours.